Rams should let Jared Goff walk, instead build around another rookie QB contract
The prevailing logic in the game of football is that to win, you must have a difference-maker at QB. After all, it’s considered the most important, and most difficult, position in all of sports.
And for good reason, I might add. Without a doubt, winning football games is far easier when aided by effective play from the QB. Quarterbacks not only affect the defense (and in turn, the scoreboard) with their arms (and sometimes their legs), but with their minds and intangibles.
Finding a QB with a terrific arm is one thing, but finding one with a terrific arm who can make all the pre and post-snap reads while commanding the huddle is like searching for the Holy Grail of the football world.
The point of all of this, however, isn’t to explain how important the QB is in the game of football. That should be rather obvious, even to the most casual of fans.
The point I’m trying to make is that there’s one NFL team out there who I think can – and should – buck the traditional system of quarterbacking and roster construction in the league.
The traditional system of quarterbacking and roster construction goes as follows…
1). Scout college quarterbacks.
2). Fall in love with quarterback and find a way to draft him, either by moving up or down the draft board or by letting the football Gods drop him in your lap.
3). Play drafted quarterback and do your best to surround him with a solid supporting cast, including but not limited to playmakers at WR, TE and RB, a solid offensive line to protect him and a coaching staff who can develop him and maximize his potential.
4). Assuming all goes well, and you’re convinced he’s the franchise cornerstone you were hoping for, sign him to an absolutely gargantuan and – more often than not – roster crippling contract that will make him one of the most expensive players in the NFL.
This is the way it’s done in the NFL. Let’s take a look at the list of the players with the 10-highest average yearly salaries, where, coincidentally, all are QB’s.
1. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, $35 million per year.
2. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers, $34 million.
3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, $33.5 million.
4. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, $30 million.
5. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, $28 million.
6. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, $27.5 million.
7. Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions, $27 million.
8. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders, $25 million.
9. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints, $25 million.
10. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts, $24.5 million.
Those numbers have been climbing higher and higher, too. As each new franchise QB becomes eligible for a new contract, they use the bar set by the last QB to sign and extend it even higher.
In June 2016, the football world was aghast as Andrew Luck signed a contract that would pay him an average of just under $25 million per year over 5-years, which was historic at the time. Derek Carr bumped that up to just over $25 one year later. Stafford pushed it to $27 in August of ’17.
Cousins signed at $28 in March of ’18 and then things really went off the rails. In swift succession Matt Ryan bumped it to $30 in May of ’18, Rodgers signed for $33.5 in August of ’18 and the latest is Wilson pushing it up to $35 in April of ’19.
So, in a span of 3-years, the highest annual salary for QB’s jumped $10 million dollars per year. Granted, the salary cap has gone up as well during that span (from $155.27 in 2016 to $188.2 in 2019), and the highest paid QB’s have, for the most part, been consuming between 14 and 15% of the cap (aside from the crazy Jimmy G season of ’18, when he had a $37 million-dollar cap hit, comprising nearly 21% of the entire cap).
It doesn’t take a genius to realize, however, that the more money that is devoted to a single position, the less there is to spread around to other positions.
Take a look at the last 10 Super Bowl champion quarterbacks, and you realize that none took more than 12.4% of the cap, and the average over that span is just 8.13% (excluding the 2010 season, which was uncapped). Think about that – the last 10 Super Bowl-winning QB’s have taken up just over 8% of their team’s entire salary cap on average!
What are the causes for this? It generally comes down to two avenues – either by taking advantage of a QB on their rookie contracts, or their veteran QB takes a discount (Brady being the perfect example of this).
However, not every veteran QB is willing to take a discount in order to help their teams salary cap. Understandably, I might add. Football players have a limited time span to maximize their earnings, and the NFL PA still hasn’t negotiated guaranteed contracts yet (seriously, how have they not bargained for this yet, while the NBA and MLB has?). I don’t blame guys like Rodgers or Wilson or Ryan who want as much money as they can get.
That does, however, put even more pressure on the scouting department to find success in the draft so as to surround their pricey gunslinger with cheap weapons on rookie deals. When you have a QB making $35 million dollars a year, you’re forced to watch a lot of other homegrown star players walk in free agency, and you have to compensate with success in the draft.
This finally brings us back to the main point of this article – that the Rams should buck the common trend of the NFL, and start a new option, one in which the team cycles through starting QB’s on their rookie contracts.
Hear me out.
Jared Goff, picked 1st overall in the 2016 NFL Draft by the then-St. Louis Rams, was abysmal as a rookie, completing just 54.6% of his passes for 1,089 yards with 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt. The lone bright spot of that season was the firing of head coach Jeff Fisher, which enabled the team to hire the offensive wunderkind Sean McVay.
Under McVay’s tutelage, the Rams, and Goff in particular, blossomed. In his first season under McVay, Goff displayed marked improvement and wound up completing 62.1% of his passes for 3,804 yards with 28 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt, and the Rams went 11-5.
In Goff’s second season under McVay, he continued to improve, completing 64.9% of his passes for 4,688 yards with 33 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt (3rd best in the NFL among QB’s with at least 250 attempts).
And with Goff on his rookie deal the past few years, the Rams have taken full advantage with the extra cap space.
They’ve re-signed guys like Todd Gurley (4-years, $57.5 million), Brandin Cooks (5-years, $81 million), Rob Havenstein (4-years, $32.5 million) and Aaron Donald (6-years, $135 million).
They’ve also dipped their toes both in free agency - adding guys like Andrew Whitworth (3-years, $33.75 million), Robert Woods (5-years, $34 million), Ndamukong Suh (1-year, $14.5 million) – and the trade market by picking up vets like Dante Fowler, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib.
The days of excess cap space courtesy of Goff being on a rookie contract, however, are quickly coming to a close.
This fall he’ll make a team-friendly $8.9 million dollars (4.7% of cap), but next fall that cap number increases to $22.7 million (11.4%) with the team picking up the 5th year option of his rookie deal.
And guess what? He’s going to be asking for a hell of a lot more than $22.7 million after next season. Odds are very likely that he’ll be looking to sign a contract that pays him more than $35 million annually, if recent history is any indication, and especially if he has another big season statistically in 2019 (which is likely).
Is Jared Goff worth $35 million+ annually? I’m not sure anyone outside of Goff’s immediate family would say yes to that question. I don’t have anything against Goff and believe he’s a fine QB, but aside from generational game changing players like Brady or Rodgers, no player is worth that type of money within the confines of a salary cap.
So, should the Rams do what common logic dictates in their current situation, and play the safe road of paying big money to their proven QB? Or, do they buck the trend, let Goff walk and draft another QB in the early rounds?
More often than not, they should take the first option, but given who their head coach is, I think they should take the second option. I think the Rams should use an early round draft pick either in 2020 or 2021 on another QB. Then, they should let Goff walk after 2020, and use the money they’ll save by continuing to bolster the offensive line, the receiving corps and the defense.
There are obviously many potential drawbacks to this strategy, which is why it’s such a risky proposition. The first is the fact that you don’t know for a fact you’ll be replacing Goff with an equally competent QB. This will again put more pressure on the scouting department to hit on a QB, when, at best, drafting a QB early on is a flip of the proverbial coin. You also risk alienating the locker room and disrupting chemistry – two things that can quickly sour even the most talented of football teams.
Remember who the head coach is though. McVay obviously would be included with the process of selecting which QB they would handpick. There’s ample reason to believe he’d be able to identify the player strengths that best fit what he’s looking to work with and what gives him the best chance of being successful.
As far as the locker room and chemistry, the money saved with the rookie QB contract allows the team to further add and re-sign proven vets, and guys who are assets both on and off the field. And winning, of course, has been shown to do wonders for team chemistry.
The question really comes down to this – do the Rams feel that McVay is such a brilliant offensive mind and QB whisperer that he can turn virtually any QB into a productive asset that helps the team win?
I do think he is that good of a coach/offensive mind/QB developer. I think you can give him a player with even average talent and he’ll be able to identify his key strengths and how best to capitalize upon them with a high level of effectiveness.
I’ll take a McVay-led offense with weapons on the outside, a sound offensive line and an opportunistic defense any day of the week, no matter who is lining up under center.
Again, if the Rams don’t have McVay as their head coach, I don’t think this would be a great strategy. Not every team in the league can attempt the build-your-team-around-a-rookie-quarterback-contract, but the Rams can.
In this unique instance, the Rams can boldly attempt to re-invent strategy on how best to construct rosters for competing for titles.
Assuming, of course, you have a brilliant offensive mind as your head coach.
Rick Stavig is the founder and publisher of Southeastern Scouting, and also provides football analysis to Saturday Down South. Email questions and comments to rgstavig@sescouting.com and follow him on twitter @rickstavig.
